Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Hidaya rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 295 miles (475 km) east-southeast of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya rapidly intensified from the equivalent of a tropical storm to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hidaya’s circulation. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Hidaya could continue to intensify rapidly and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move toward the coast of Tanzania. Hidaya could approach the coast near Dar es Salaam on Saturday. Hidaya could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Tanzania. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Develops East of Tanzania

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Tropical Cyclone Hidaya developed over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Wednesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 8.6°S and longitude 45.0°E which put it about 2250 miles (360 km) north-northeast of the Comoros. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A former tropical depression over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Comoros strengthened on Wednesday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Hidaya generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move north of Comoros on Thursday. Hidaya will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Comoros. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could approach the coast of Africa near southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique later this week.

Tropical Depression Forms Northeast of Comoros

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A tropical depression formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Comoros on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of a tropical depression was located at latitude 7.7°S and longitude 45.0°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) northeast of the Comoros. The tropical depression was moving toward the southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Comoros exhibited more organization on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as a tropical depression. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression. Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical depression is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The tropical depression will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical depression will move over Comoros on Wednesday. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Comoros. Locally heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The tropical depression could approach the coast of Africa near southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Paul Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Paul weakened over the Coral Sea on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 156.5°E which put it about 325 miles (525 km) southeast of the Tagula Island. Paul was moving toward the east at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Paul strengthened earlier on Thursday when it was in a more favorable environment. Then an upper level trough near the east coast of Australia began to produce strong west-northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds caused the vertical wind shear to increase. The stronger vertical wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Paul. A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Paul’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Paul consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Paul.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough near eastern Australia will continue to produce strong west-northwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Paul to continue to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere because of the strong vertical wind shear. Paul will move around the northern side of high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia. The high pressure system will steer Paul toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Paul will weaken over the Coral Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Paul Forms over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Paul formed over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 154.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) south-southeast of the Tagula Island. Paul was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea southeast of New Guinea strengthened on Wednesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Paul. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Paul’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The circulation around Paul was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Paul’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level trough over eastern Australia will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Paul could intensify during the next 24 hours despite the wind shear. The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase on Friday. Paul will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Paul will not move much during the next day or so. A high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia is likely to start to steer Paul toward the west on Friday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Paul will eventually start to move toward the northern Cape York Peninsula.

Elsewhere, a weakening Tropical Cyclone Olga was passing near Exmouth, Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northeast of the Exmouth, Australia. Olga was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. A weather station on Barrow Island reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Olga Continues to Weaken

Tropical Cyclone Olga continued to weaken on Tuesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 115.8°E which put it about 265 miles (435 km) north-northeast of the Exmouth, Australia. Olga was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia continued to produce strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Olga’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds blew the tops off of most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Olga. There were still a few thunderstorms in bands in the southeastern periphery of Olga’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Olga consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the pattern of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Olga to be asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Olga’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Olga.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough west of Australia will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Olga to continue to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will be north of Exmouth in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Olga was already bringing gusty winds to the area around Barrow Island. A weather station on Barrow Island reported a sustained wind speed of 36 m.p.h. (58 km/h) and a wind gust of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Olga Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Olga weakened over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 117.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) north of the Karratha, Australia. Olga was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Olga to weaken steadily on Monday. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Olga’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Olga to become asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Olga’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Olga consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the pattern of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Olga to become asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) in the southern half of Olga’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 75 miles in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Olga.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough west of Australia will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Olga to continue to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will gradually move closer to the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Olga brought strong gusty winds to the area around Rowley Shoals. A weather station on Rowley Shoals reported a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h). Olga could bring strong gusty winds to Barrow Island during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Olga Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Olga rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 119.1°E which put it about 365 miles (590 km) north of the Port Hedland, Australia. Olga was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Olga rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia during Sunday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was present at the center of Olga’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Olga. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Olga was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Olga’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Olga was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4.

Hurricane Olga will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Olga from the west. The trough will produce strong westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Olga’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Olga will start to weaken when the wind shear increases. Olga could weaken rapidly because of the small size of its circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia. Olga is forecast to turn more toward the west-southwest on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Olga is expected to have a minimal impact on Western Australia. Olga will bring gusty winds and large waves to the area around Rowley Shoals.

Tropical Cyclone Olga Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Olga rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 119.1°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) north of the Port Hedland, Australia. Olga was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Olga rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia on Saturday night. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was present at the center of Olga’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Olga. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Olga was small, but it was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Olga’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Olga was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.8.

Hurricane Olga will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Olga from the west. The trough will produce strong westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Olga’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Olga could continue to intensify during the next few hours, but Olga will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia. Olga is forecast to turn more toward the west-southwest on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to have a minimal impact on Western Australia. Olga will bring gusty winds and large waves to the area around Rowley Shoals.

Tropical Cyclone Olga Strengthens to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Olga strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 119.6°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) north of the Port Hedland, Australia. Olga was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Olga strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northwest of Australia on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Olga’s circulation. A circular eye with a diameter of 16 miles (26 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Olga generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Olga’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of the axis an upper level ridge over northern Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Olga will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will parallel to the coast of Western Australia. Olga is forecast to turn more toward the west-southwest on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to have a minimal impact on Western Australia.